Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and 10%?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election be between 5% and .... This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing April 12, 2027. The market is pricing in an 80% probability that Fujimori wins the first round by 5-10%, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (22.2% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 80% probability that Fujimori wins the first round by 5-10%, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (22.2% for Yes vs. 461% for No) and massive realized volatility of 8,986% suggest significant uncertainty despite the high price, with the No side offering outsized compensation for tail risk. The thin liquidity ($3.7k open interest, $1k daily volume) and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 5 indicate this market could experience sharp repricing on new information, particularly as Peru's election approaches over the next year. The recent 3-cent price jump to 82¢ combined with a 25.83 volatility ratio signals elevated positioning changes, though the neutral regime score suggests no strong directional momentum currently.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the first round of the Peru presidential election falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPERUPRES1RMOV-26APR12-KFUJ-P7 yes 100