Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28000 and 28499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
Leader sits at 24% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
33,000.01 or above
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
18,999.99 or below
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
209 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Nasdaq-100
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27500 and 27999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 27,500 to 27,999.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B27750
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 18,999.99 or below
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T19000
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28500 and 28999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 28,500 to 28,999.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B28750
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30500 and 30999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 30,500 to 30,999.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B30750
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 27000 and 27499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 27,000 to 27,499.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B27250
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31500 and 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,500 to 31,999.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B31750
Analysis
This contract settles if the Nasdaq-100 closes between 28,000 and 28,499.99 on December 31, 2026, currently assigned a 16% probability by the leading contract. The low probability suggests market participants expect the index to either exceed this range substantially or fall short of it. The current level reflects uncertainty about equity market performance over the next seven months, with the Nasdaq-100 needing to navigate economic data, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve policy through year-end. The main drivers of this probability are expectations for broader tech sector growth versus recession concerns, and whether current market valuations persist or compress. Resolution will occur automatically on December 31, 2026 at 4:00 PM EST when the index's official closing level is recorded, making this a straightforward factual outcome with no discretionary interpretation required.
- ›Current Nasdaq-100 level relative to the 28,000-28,499.99 range and implied annualized growth rate needed to reach that band by year-end
- ›Market expectations for corporate earnings growth and profit margins in the technology sector through 2026
- ›Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory and inflation data releases between now and December 31, 2026
- ›Concentration risk in mega-cap technology stocks that comprise a significant portion of Nasdaq-100 weighting
- ›Realized volatility and drawdown severity if equity markets experience a significant correction in the second half of 2026
What moved the line
- May 3033,000.01 or above↓6pp35→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 133,000.01 or above↑5pp26→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 533,000.01 or above↓4pp35→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 3133,000.01 or above↓3pp29→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 233,000.01 or above↑3pp31→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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