Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 28000 and 28499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
Leader sits at 20% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
33,000.01 or above
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
18,999.99 or below
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$820
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
144 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Nasdaq-100
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32000 and 32499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,000 to 32,499.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B32250
Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 18,999.99 or below
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T19000
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31500 and 31999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,500 to 31,999.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B31750
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32500 and 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 32,500 to 33,000
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B32750
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 31000 and 31499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 31,000 to 31,499.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B31250
Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 30000 and 30499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 30,000 to 30,499.99
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-B30250
Analysis
This contract reflects a 24% probability that the Nasdaq-100 closes between 28,000 and 28,499.99 on December 31, 2026. Market participants are pricing in significantly higher index levels by year-end, with the most-traded contract suggesting above 33,000 is more likely. The current level reflects optimism about tech sector growth but carries risk from potential interest-rate increases, earnings disappointments, or economic slowdown. Resolution depends entirely on market price at 4 PM EST on December 31, 2026, making macroeconomic data releases, Fed policy announcements, and quarterly earnings between now and year-end the primary drivers of contract repricing.
- ›The Nasdaq-100 was approximately 20,700 on August 9, 2026; reaching 28,000–28,500 by December requires 35–38% appreciation in 4.5 months
- ›The market's highest-probability outcome (above 33,000) suggests traders expect >59% year-to-date gains, indicating strong growth expectations already priced in
- ›Interest-rate expectations and inflation data through October–November 2026 will likely be decisive factors, as tightening pressure would compress valuations
- ›The 28,000–28,500 band ranks well below the most-bullish outcomes but above bear-case scenarios, positioning it in the lower-middle range of possibilities
- ›Earnings revisions for major Nasdaq constituents (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) in Q3–Q4 2026 will provide key validation or contradiction of growth assumptions
What moved the line
- Aug 433,000.01 or above↑5pp17→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 633,000.01 or above↓4pp25→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 533,000.01 or above↑3pp22→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 733,000.01 or above↑3pp21→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 933,000.01 or above↓3pp22→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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