Nasdaq 100 (NDX) above ___ end of 2026?
Leader sits at 74% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
25,249.86 or above
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
33,000.01 or above
Spread
49pp
contested
24h volume
$434
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
207 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 33,000.01 or above
KXNASDAQ100Y-26DEC31H1600-T33000
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 25249.85 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?: 25,249.86 or above
KXNASDAQ100POS-26DEC31H1600-T25249.85
What moved the line
- Jun 533,000.01 or above↓6pp35→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 633,000.01 or above↓6pp29→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 133,000.01 or above↑5pp26→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 325,249.86 or above↓5pp78→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 425,249.86 or above↑5pp73→78¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (74% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In markets
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.