Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2028?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. The market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability despite offering a spectacular 915.5% yield on Yes positions—a classic hallmark of deep-out-of-the-money political contracts.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at just 5¢, implying only a 5% probability despite offering a spectacular 915.5% yield on Yes positions—a classic hallmark of deep-out-of-the-money political contracts. With just $92 in open interest and a flat 5¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making this more of a novelty bet than a tradeable position, though the recent price movement from 2¢ to 6¢ suggests some retail interest has emerged. The 625-day timeframe provides ample runway for state legislatures to act, yet the compact would need to gain roughly 75 additional electoral votes from current signatories to hit the threshold, making the low probability assessment reasonable given the political headwinds and structural barriers to interstate compacts.
Resolution rules
If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECCOMPACT-30-28 yes 100