Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status che.... This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1617% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 12.2% on the No side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exactly 5 shutdowns in 2026—though the zero 24-hour volume and minimal $148 open interest indicate severe illiquidity that likely explains the mispricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1617% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 12.2% on the No side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exactly 5 shutdowns in 2026—though the zero 24-hour volume and minimal $148 open interest indicate severe illiquidity that likely explains the mispricing. The high cliff risk index of 12 combined with 260 days to expiration means resolution hinges on a very specific outcome (exactly 5 shutdowns, not 4 or 6), making this a narrow binary bet on an unpredictable political event. Given historical shutdown frequency rarely exceeds 1-2 per year, the market's low price may actually be justified despite the yield disparity, reflecting genuine rarity rather than opportunity.
Resolution rules
If the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) is exactly 5 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T5 yes 100