Will there be a government shutdown?
Kalshi
18 contracts
Polymarket
2 contracts
Analysis
The US government is facing a high likelihood of a significant shutdown in 2026, with markets pricing in a 97% probability of a duration of at least 70 days and a 53% chance that exactly two distinct shutdowns occur throughout the year. While the duration is expected to be prolonged, with a 59% chance of reaching at least 85 days, the frequency is currently forecasted to settle at two separate events.
- ›97% chance of 70+ day shutdown
- ›59% chance of 85+ day duration
- ›53% likelihood of exactly two shutdowns
- ›High volatility in fiscal policy expectations
Contracts
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?: Shutdown & Democratic Party
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines?: Spirit Airlines
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic?: Anthropic
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?: Shutdown & Republican Party
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir?: Palantir
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Freeport-McMoRan?: Freeport-McMoRan
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin?: Lockheed Martin
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Nvidia?: Nvidia
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril?: Anduril
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?: OpenAI
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Boeing?: Boeing
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?: D-Wave Quantum
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly?: Eli Lilly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?: 5
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC?: TSMC
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Micron?: Micron
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?: GlobalFoundries
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, TikTok US or ByteDance?: TikTok US