Will there be a government shutdown?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 15 contracts. Kalshi at 15%, Polymarket at 50% — a 35pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
13 contracts
Polymarket
50%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
35pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
15 contracts
Closes
Mar 31, 2029
1028 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 15¢ · Polymarket 50¢ · 35pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (15¢, 13 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (50¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will government spending decrease” vs “Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will government spending decrease
Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2028?: At least 250 billion
KXGOVTCUTS-28-250
Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2026?: At least 250 billion
KXGOVTCUTS-26-250
Will government spending decrease by 500 before 2026?: At least 500 billion
KXGOVTCUTS-26-500
Will government spending decrease by 1000 before 2026?: At least 1 trillion
KXGOVTCUTS-26-1000
Will government spending decrease by 750 before 2026?: At least 750 billion
KXGOVTCUTS-26-750
Will government spending decrease by 1000 before 2028?: At least 1 trillion
KXGOVTCUTS-28-1000
Cluster 2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?: 5
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T5
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T4
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Cluster 3
Will there be more than 1
Cluster 4
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026
Cluster 5
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027
Analysis
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will legislation that would temporarily suspend or reduce the federal excise tax on gasoline become law before Jan 1, 2027?" 38¢; kalshi "Will legislation that would temporarily suspend or reduce the federal excise tax on gasoline become law before Jul 1, 2026?" 5¢; kalshi "Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2026?" 8¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.
- ›Federal expenditure outlook
- ›Fiscal policy stability
- ›Low market-implied probability of austerity
- ›Current federal spending trajectory
What moved the line
- Jun 5More than 150,000↓21pp45→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5More than 100,000↓18pp74→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6More than 100,000↓16pp56→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Shutdown & Republican Party↑4pp15→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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