Will there be a government shutdown?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
11 contracts
Closes
Mar 31, 2029
983 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly” vs “Will government spending decrease”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?: 5
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T5
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T4
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Cluster 2
Will government spending decrease
Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2026?: At least 250 billion
KXGOVTCUTS-26-250
Will government spending decrease by 750 before 2026?: At least 750 billion
KXGOVTCUTS-26-750
Will government spending decrease by 500 before 2026?: At least 500 billion
KXGOVTCUTS-26-500
Cluster 3
Will there be more than 1
Cluster 4
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 5
Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%
Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?: Below 5%
KXDEFGDP-26OCT20-T5
Analysis
Prediction markets currently indicate a 48% chance that the U.S. government will be in a state of shutdown on October 1, 2026. Looking at the broader fiscal outlook for the year, markets assign a 60% probability that there will be exactly two distinct government shutdowns in 2026, while the likelihood of reaching three or more shutdowns is lower at 28%.
- ›48% shutdown risk Oct 1
- ›60% chance of exactly two 2026 shutdowns
- ›Fiscal policy volatility
- ›Market-implied federal disruption
What moved the line
- Jul 18Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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