Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status che.... This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 1137% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 12¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a thin, stale quote with a wide 4¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 1137% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 12¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a thin, stale quote with a wide 4¢ spread. The extraordinarily high yield combined with low open interest of $1,179 and a cliff risk index of 8 indicates this contract is unlikely to see meaningful trading activity before its 260-day expiry on 1/1/2027. The "exactly 4" resolution criterion is notably restrictive—given historical shutdown frequency, betting on a precise count rather than a range makes this a speculative tail-risk position rather than a core political forecast.
Resolution rules
If the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) is exactly 4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T4 yes 100