Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026
Leader sits at 62% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
3
Spread
37pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
102 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Analysis
This contract asks whether the U.S. government will experience exactly 5 distinct shutdowns during 2026, with each shutdown defined by a daily status check at 10:00 AM ET. The 3% probability reflects market skepticism that five separate shutdown events will occur this year; markets currently assign highest probability (62%) to exactly 2 shutdowns instead. The probability hinges on Congressional budget negotiations and debt-ceiling deadlines throughout 2026. Key drivers include the frequency of funding lapses, how quickly shutdowns are resolved, and whether political gridlock intensifies or moderates. The primary resolution catalyst is the end of 2026, though mid-year spending bills and debt-ceiling votes in spring and fall will signal whether multiple shutdowns are accumulating on track. Current market pricing suggests traders view exactly 5 shutdowns as an extreme outlier scenario, substantially less likely than outcomes with 2–3 shutdowns.
- ›As of September 2026, if fewer than 3 shutdowns have occurred year-to-date, reaching exactly 5 total becomes mathematically compressed into remaining months and less probable
- ›Congress must pass multiple continuing resolutions or full budget bills; failure at each major deadline creates a shutdown opportunity, making frequency dependent on legislative calendar deadliness
- ›Historical baseline: recent years (2018–2023) averaged 0–2 shutdowns annually, suggesting 5 is materially above historical norms under typical political conditions
- ›Resolution depends on the strict definition in GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract—shutdown status checked daily at 10:00 AM ET means timing and duration of any lapse matter for counting as a distinct event
- ›Market concentration on exactly 2 shutdowns (62%) and exactly 3 (23%) indicates consensus that 5 falls into tail-risk territory, requiring sustained political dysfunction or unusual legislative behavior
What moved the line
- Sep 183↑18pp7→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 173↓17pp24→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 182↑8pp55→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 172↓7pp62→55¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (62% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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