Will the US confirm aliens exist?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$101
9 contracts
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
192 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will there be more than” vs “Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 100000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 100,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-100000
Will there be more than 300000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 300,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-300000
Will there be more than 250000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 250,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-250000
Will there be more than 200000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 200,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-200000
Will there be more than 150000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 150,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-150000
Cluster 2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Cluster 3
Will government spending increase
Analysis
There is no credible evidence or current government disclosure regarding UFOs or alien confirmation, with prediction markets currently assigning only a 6% probability to the prospect of Japan declassifying new UFO files in 2026. While space-related investments like the Procure Space ETF (UFO) trade at $43.63, this price reflects general industry sentiment rather than confirmation of extraterrestrial contact. Public interest and official government activity on this topic remain minimal as of September 2026.
- ›Minimal market interest in UFO disclosure
- ›6% probability for Japan UFO file release
- ›Space-sector ETFs as broader industry proxies
- ›Lack of substantive government confirmation
What moved the line
- Sep 183↑18pp7→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 173↓17pp24→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 182↑8pp55→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 172↓7pp62→55¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19More than 100,000↑5pp12→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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