Will the US confirm aliens exist?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$71
12 contracts
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
252 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly” vs “Will there be more than”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?: 5
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T5
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T4
Cluster 2
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 100000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 100,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-100000
Will there be more than 250000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 250,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-250000
Will there be more than 200000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 200,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-200000
Will there be more than 150000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 150,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-150000
Cluster 3
Will government spending increase
Will government spending increase by 400000000000 before 2027?: At least $400 billion
KXGOVTSPEND-27-400B
Will government spending increase by 50000000000 before 2027?: At least $50 billion
KXGOVTSPEND-27-50B
Will government spending increase by 1000000000 before 2027?: At least $1 billion
KXGOVTSPEND-27-1B
Will government spending increase by 500000000000 before 2027?: At least $500 billion
KXGOVTSPEND-27-500B
Analysis
Prediction markets currently assign an 80% probability to Donald Trump declassifying new UFO files by August 31, 2026. While the odds of disclosure by mid-August remain significant at 72%, the market indicates lower confidence in a quicker release before the end of July at 33%. Additionally, speculation regarding Japan declassifying new UFO files in 2026 remains very low at just 10%.
- ›Trump declassification timeline
- ›August 31 confidence levels
- ›Geopolitical information disclosure
- ›Low Japanese disclosure probability
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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