Will the US confirm aliens exist?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
13 contracts
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
299 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will there be more than” vs “Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 150000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 150,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-150000
Will there be more than 250000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 250,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-250000
Will there be more than 350000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 350,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-350000
Will there be more than 100000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 100,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-100000
Will there be more than 200000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 200,000
KXFEDEMPLOYEES-27FEB-200000
Cluster 2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T2
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?: 5
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T5
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T4
Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3
KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3
Cluster 3
Will government spending increase
Will government spending increase by 400000000000 before 2027?: At least $400 billion
KXGOVTSPEND-27-400B
Will government spending increase by 50000000000 before 2027?: At least $50 billion
KXGOVTSPEND-27-50B
Will government spending increase by 1000000000 before 2027?: At least $1 billion
KXGOVTSPEND-27-1B
Will government spending increase by 500000000000 before 2027?: At least $500 billion
KXGOVTSPEND-27-500B
Analysis
Prediction markets currently indicate a significant likelihood of new UFO-related file declassification under the Trump administration by mid-2026. Markets price an 84% probability that such files will be declassified by June 30, following a 65% probability for the earlier target of June 15. The market for similar disclosures occurring in Japan remains speculative at 14%.
- ›Trump administration disclosure sentiment
- ›June 15 declassification window
- ›June 30 declassification window
- ›Low probability of Japanese disclosure
What moved the line
- Jun 5More than 150,000↓21pp45→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5More than 100,000↓18pp74→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5More than 200,000↓8pp18→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5More than 250,000↓7pp11→4¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in politics
- South Korea By-Electionslast 97% · 1d
- 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winnerlast 77% · 1d
- Incheon Mayoral Election Winnerlast 3% · 1d
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd placelast 76% · 1d
- Ulsan Mayoral Election Winnerlast 93% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In politics
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.