Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status che.... This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 528.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 21¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather thin order book positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 528.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 21¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather thin order book positioning. The 3¢ spread and modest $1,980 open interest indicate limited capital committed to this binary outcome, making the probability estimate unreliable for serious traders. With 260 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the current conditions suggest waiting for improved liquidity before taking a meaningful position.
Resolution rules
If the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) is exactly 3 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNUMSHUTDOWNS-27JAN01-T3 yes 100