Will the official trailer for Avengers: Doomsday be released Worldwide before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will the official trailer for Avengers: Doomsday be released Worldwide before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The market has surged 66% over seven days to 65¢, reflecting growing confidence in a pre-June trailer release with 43 days remaining, though the extreme 1447% implied yield on the No side suggests significant tail risk if Marvel delays announcement.
Analysis
The market has surged 66% over seven days to 65¢, reflecting growing confidence in a pre-June trailer release with 43 days remaining, though the extreme 1447% implied yield on the No side suggests significant tail risk if Marvel delays announcement. Volume is modest at $542.60 with a 6¢ spread, indicating limited liquidity for a binary event with high realized volatility (326%), and the 1.0 info arrivals per hour signal active market attention as the deadline approaches. The 499% Yes yield appears reasonable given the compressed timeframe, but the neutral regime score (0.5) and elevated cliff risk index (2) warrant caution on conviction bets this close to expiration.
Resolution rules
If the official trailer for Avengers: Doomsday has been publicly released Worldwide through official channels before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMEDIARELEASEADDTRAILER-26-JUN01 yes 100