Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in May 2026?

This market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 77¢ to 52¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant shift in inflation expectations or recent CPI data release. The extreme implied yields (650.8% for Yes, 763.8% for No) reflect the market's proximity to resolution in just 52 days, but the near-zero 24-hour volume and minimal $285 open interest indicate severe liquidity constraints that may distort pricing. The current 52¢ price implies roughly even odds that core CPI will exceed 2.6% through May 2026, though the wide 4¢ spread and cliff risk index of 1 suggest uncertainty and potential for sharp moves as the resolution date approaches.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

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