Will there be an F1 team from China before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will there be an F1 team from China before 2027?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely low 6% probability despite a massive 1,868% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or genuine skepticism about China's F1 entry timeline.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low 6% probability despite a massive 1,868% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or genuine skepticism about China's F1 entry timeline. With zero 24-hour volume and only $3,051 open interest against a wide 4¢ spread, liquidity is critically thin, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The recent price jump from 4¢ to 7¢ over seven days combined with 260 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 13 indicates this market may be sensitive to regulatory announcements or team ownership news, but the extreme yield-to-liquidity ratio suggests this is more of a speculative long-shot bet than an efficiently priced contract.
Resolution rules
If there is an F1 team from China before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1CHINA-27 yes 100