Will there be at least 2 upsets in the 1st Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will there be at least 2 upsets in the 1st Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. The market has experienced a dramatic 49% price surge over seven days (43¢ to 64¢), suggesting either shifting expectations about upset likelihood or increased conviction among recent traders.
Analysis
The market has experienced a dramatic 49% price surge over seven days (43¢ to 64¢), suggesting either shifting expectations about upset likelihood or increased conviction among recent traders. The exceptionally high implied yield on the No side (2186%) combined with thin liquidity ($1,121 open interest) and an 8¢ spread indicates this is a low-volume, potentially mispriced contract where the No position offers outsized returns if upsets fail to materialize. With 30 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the sharp recent move warrants caution—the low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests relatively stable pricing, but the thin market depth means large orders could move prices significantly.
Resolution rules
If the teams in the Pro Basketball playoffs record at least 2 series upsets in the 1st Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAUPSET-26R1-2 yes 100