Will there be at least 3 upsets in the 2nd Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will there be at least 3 upsets in the 2nd Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical 19,299% implied yield on the Yes side and 13¢ spread suggest the market is severely mispriced or simply inactive—such yields are only theoretically achievable with minimal capital and high volatility. With 30 days to expiry and a neutral regime, traders should be cautious about treating this price as meaningful given the negligible liquidity and high cliff risk index of 16.
Resolution rules
If the teams in the Pro Basketball playoffs record at least 3 series upsets in the 2nd Round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBAUPSET-26R2-3 yes 100