Will Trump nationalize elections?
0xe6522d64f35a6843ebdbccab2e3d4a1385350be6d40a3de766330e207b71a8ba · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 260 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 498.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.09 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 668% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.09 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.5/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 453% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
138 indicator snapshots · 6 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates new legal authority for the federal government to exercise direct administrative control over the previously-localized administration of federal elections by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying legislation or action must seek to grant continuing federal control over previously-localized (State-level or local-level) vote-counting, vote certification, or actual election-day voting in federal elections for jurisdictions in more than one state. Temporary federal support to local election authorities, or the execution of previously-recognized federal election duties, will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xe6522d64f35a6843ebdbccab2e3d4a1385350be6d40a3de766330e207b71a8ba yes 100