Will Trump say "Pocahontas" before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Trump say "Pocahontas" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining from 51¢ to 38¢ over seven days, suggesting reduced conviction that Trump will use this specific epithet before the deadline.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward pressure, declining from 51¢ to 38¢ over seven days, suggesting reduced conviction that Trump will use this specific epithet before the deadline. The extreme implied yield on the Yes side (789%) combined with very low liquidity ($371.88 open interest and $37.39 daily volume) indicates this is a thin, speculative market where the 40¢ price may not reflect deep consensus. With 76 days remaining and a realized volatility of 382%, this market exhibits high uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest info arrival rate (0.6/h) suggest no major catalysts are currently driving pricing.
Resolution rules
If Pocahontas, or a plural or possessive form of Pocahontas, is stated by Donald Trump before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26JUL01-POCA yes 100