Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above -1.0%?
Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above -1.0%?. This contract trades at 67¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $550 open interest, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $550 open interest, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (4698% for Yes, 5514% for No) reflect the market's proximity to expiry in just 7 days, combined with minimal liquidity that inflates leverage calculations. The price has declined 8¢ over the past week from 62¢ to 60¢, suggesting modest recent pessimism about UK retail sales exceeding the -1.0% threshold, though the neutral regime score and thin trading volume limit confidence in directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 is above -1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKRETAIL-26APR24-T-1.0 yes 100