Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $200 open interest, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $200 open interest, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable. The implied yield of over 20,000% on the Yes side is a red flag indicating thin order books and wide 10¢ spreads that don't reflect genuine probability estimates. With just 7 days until expiry and a recent price decline from 24¢ to 20¢, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the pricing may not reflect actual expectations for UK retail sales growth.
Resolution rules
If United Kingdom retail sales MoM for March 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKRETAIL-26APR24-T0.0 yes 100