Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in Reynolds-Jackson's nomination prospects for NJ-12.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in Reynolds-Jackson's nomination prospects for NJ-12. The 0¢ price reflects near-zero conviction she'll win the Democratic nomination, though the astronomical 1232.1% implied yield on a Yes position indicates the market is pricing in substantial tail risk rather than genuine probability. The recent price decline from 10¢ to 5¢ over seven days, combined with a high 19 Cliff Risk Index and 563 days to expiration, suggests this is a speculative position with limited liquidity that could experience sharp moves if new information emerges about the race.
Resolution rules
If Verlina Reynolds-Jackson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNJPRIMARY-12D26-VREY yes 100