Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing in an overwhelming Republican advantage at 93¢, reflecting Wyoming's deep red political lean, though the extreme 2425% implied yield on the "No" side signals minimal liquidity and pricing distortion rather than genuine uncertainty. With zero 24-hour volume despite $20k open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, this appears to be a stale or illiquid market where the high cliff risk index of 13 suggests potential for sharp repricing if new information emerges. The modest 1¢ price decline over seven days indicates stability in conviction, though traders should note the asymmetric risk profile heavily favors the consensus outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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