Will Rihanna have more Worldwide Streams than Sabrina Carpenter on Luminate during the April 24 - April 30, 2026 time period
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
20 contracts
Top contract
43¢
$2K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will Musk have a net worth more than” vs “Will Billie Eilish have”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Musk have a net worth more than
Will Musk have a net worth more than 1200 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1.2 trillion
KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1200
Will Musk have a net worth more than 900 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $900 Billion
KXMUSKWEALTH-27-900
Will Musk have a net worth more than 1400 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1.4 trillion
KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1400
Will Musk have a net worth more than 1100 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1.1 trillion
KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1100
Will Musk have a net worth more than 1000 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1 trillion
KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1000
Cluster 2
Will Billie Eilish have
Will Billie Eilish have above 236,885,880 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026?: Target Streams: 236,885,880
KXARTISTSTREAMSU-BEILISH26MAY07-236.9M
Will Billie Eilish have 232000000 Streams on Luminate during May 01 - May 07, 2026?: Above 232M
KXARTISTSTREAMS-BEILISH26MAY07-232.0M
Cluster 3
Will Travis Scott have
Will Travis Scott have above 148,644,085 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026?: Target Streams: 148,644,085
KXARTISTSTREAMSU-TSCOTT26MAY07-148.6M
Will Travis Scott have 154000000 Streams on Luminate during May 01 - May 07, 2026?: Above 154M
KXARTISTSTREAMS-TSCOTT26MAY07-154.0M
Cluster 4
Will J. Cole have
Will J. Cole have above 109,039,290 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026?: Target Streams: 109,039,290
KXARTISTSTREAMSU-COLE26MAY07-109.0M
Will J. Cole have 104000000 Streams on Luminate during May 01 - May 07, 2026?: Above 104M
KXARTISTSTREAMS-COLE26MAY07-104.0M
Cluster 5
Will Ariana Grande have above 253,573,275 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026
Cluster 6
Will Michael Jackson have above 532,914,101 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026
Cluster 7
Will Drake have above 496,244,101 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026
Cluster 8
Will Lady Gaga have above 232,198,523 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026
Cluster 9
Will Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have more goal contributions in the FIFA World Cup
Cluster 10
Will Bruno Mars have above 398,485,183 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026
Cluster 11
Will Kanye West have 264000000 Streams on Luminate during May 01 - May 07, 2026
Cluster 12
Will BTS have 543000000 Streams on Luminate during May 01 - May 07, 2026
Cluster 13
Will The Beatles have above 117,305,346 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026
What moved the line
- May 3Target Streams: 117,305,346↓45pp49→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Target Streams: 148,644,085↓17pp21→4¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27More than $1 trillion↓17pp71→54¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28More than $1 trillion↑17pp54→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 2More than $1.4 trillion↓5pp25→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.