Will Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have more goal contributions in the FIFA World Cup
Lionel Messi is priced at 93¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Will Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have more goal contributions in the FIFA World Cup.
Price history
93¢ current
+38¢Contract brief
If Lionel Messi records above the total goal contributions (goals + assists) as the count of Cristiano Ronaldo's total goal contributions during the entire tournament of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Lionel Messi
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Lionel Messi 90¢
Range
2¢-90¢
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
KXWCMESSIRONALDO-26LMESCRON-LMES
Jun 26, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Will Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have more goal contributions in the FIFA World Cup
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lionel Messi records above the total goal contributions (goals + assists) as the count of Cristiano Ronaldo's total goal contributions during the entire tournament of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Identifier
KXWCMESSIRONALDO-26LMESCRON-LMES
Event family
Will Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo have more goal contributions in the FIFA World Cup.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Lionel Messi 90¢
Current share
9%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.