Belgium vs. IR Iran
Leader sits at 67% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Belgium
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Draw (Belgium vs. IR Iran)
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 21, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Belgium vs. IR Iran
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Belgium will defeat Iran in an upcoming match. The 36% aggregate probability reflects meaningful disagreement between venues—Polymarket traders price Belgium's chances at 38% while Kalshi traders estimate 25%, a 13-point gap that suggests uncertainty about either Belgium's form or Iran's strength relative to consensus. The current level would shift based on team lineups, recent head-to-head performance, and momentum entering the match. Key upcoming factors include official team confirmations closer to match day and any recent results from either nation that would signal current competitive standing. The resolution depends on the match outcome itself, which will settle all related contracts once completed.
- ›Kalshi-Polymarket pricing gap of 13 percentage points indicates material disagreement between trading venues on Belgium's win probability
- ›Zero volume on all listed contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent trading activity and potentially stale price discovery
- ›Belgium priced at 57¢ to beat Egypt on Polymarket, while Iran priced at 40¢ to beat Egypt, creating potential implied probability inconsistencies if all three teams compete
- ›Draw outcome for Belgium-Iran match priced at 30¢, indicating traders assign non-trivial probability to a tie rather than a decisive result
- ›Related Egypt contracts exist across venues, suggesting this may be part of a larger tournament or group-stage competition where multiple matchups carry interdependent information
Recently closed in iran
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Ramps Up
The probability of a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 has crossed 50¢ for the first time, signaling that traders see real progress in negotiations. Short-dated contracts expiring May 15 and May 31 have also spiked, indicating high conviction that a framework agreement could emerge within weeks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.