Will Wenyi Ding lead at the end of Round 1 in the Volvo China Open
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−64pp
10h ago
24h volume
$23K
20 contracts
Closes
May 12, 2026
9 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will the rate of c” vs “Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of c
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.6%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 4.0%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T4.0
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.5
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.7%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.7
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 3.9%
KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.9
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.8%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in June 2026?: Above 3.7%
KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.7
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.9%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.9
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.5%
KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.5
Cluster 2
Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round
Cluster 3
Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4
Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.30ㅤ?: Above 4.30ㅤ
KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T4.30
Will the Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.05ㅤ?: Above 4.05ㅤ
KXJETFUEL-26MAY06-T4.05
Cluster 4
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Rory McIlroy
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-RMCI
Cluster 5
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Scottie Scheffler
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-SSCH
Cluster 6
Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Collin Morikawa
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-CMOR
Cluster 7
Will Harry Kane lead UEFA Champions League in goals scored for the 2025-26 season (including league phase and knockout rounds)
Cluster 8
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending May 2, 2026
Cluster 9
Will Kylian Mbappe lead UEFA Champions League in goals scored for the 2025-26 season (including league phase and knockout rounds)
Cluster 10
Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Matt Fitzpatrick
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-MFIT
Analysis
This market prices the probability that Wenyi Ding holds the lead after the first round of the Volvo China Open golf tournament at 95%, indicating strong confidence in this outcome. The high probability reflects that multiple golfers compete simultaneously in Round 1, meaning any single player leading is relatively unlikely in absolute terms—yet one competitor will inevitably lead after 18 holes. The probability would move lower if pre-tournament odds shift dramatically or if live scoring during Round 1 shows unexpected performance from other contenders. The market will fully resolve when the tournament's first round concludes and official leaderboards are finalized, typically the same day or following day depending on tournament scheduling.
- ›Wenyi Ding's current world ranking and recent tournament performance relative to the field at the Volvo China Open
- ›The total number of competitors in the tournament field—larger fields distribute probability more evenly across contenders
- ›Whether Ding is favored by course conditions, tee times, or weather patterns during Round 1 play
- ›Real-time scoring data and live leaderboard position changes as Round 1 progresses
- ›Ding's historical Round 1 performance and scoring consistency compared to other featured competitors in the field
What moved the line
- Apr 30U.S. Gulf Coast weekly average spot price for the week ending May 1, 2026 be above 4.05ㅤ?: Above 4.05ㅤ↓20pp61→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Cameron Young↓19pp20→1¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Cameron Young↑17pp3→20¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Above 3.9%↑17pp24→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 1At least 210000↑14pp19→33¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Other questions in china.
In china
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.