Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%
Leader sits at 42% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 2.25%
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Exactly 2.50%
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.00%?: Exactly 2.00%
KXCANOREOY-26DEC31-E2.00
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 3.00%?: Exactly 3.00%
KXCANOREOY-26DEC31-E3.00
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.75%?: Exactly 2.75%
KXCANOREOY-26DEC31-E2.75
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.50%?: Exactly 2.50%
KXCANOREOY-26DEC31-E2.50
Will the Bank of Canada overnight rate on December 31, 2026 be exactly 2.25%?: Exactly 2.25%
KXCANOREOY-26DEC31-E2.25
Recently closed in economy
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in Aprillast 97% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?last 3% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In economy
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.