1 source contract·Kalshi 1·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 211d

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

15%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

15%

1 contract

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$38

1 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

211 days

Open top contract Read answer fed rate

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 202715¢$38

30-day trend

Aggregate of 1 contract · 27d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

1 contract$38

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-GOV2

15¢±0$38K→

Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that a specific individual will successfully undergo Senate confirmation as the next Federal Reserve Chair, currently estimated at 62%. The probability sits at the midpoint of traditional political uncertainty, neither heavily favored nor unlikely. Market confidence hinges on two primary dynamics: Senate composition and voting patterns in confirmation votes, and any potential withdrawal or alternative candidate emerging. The Senate Banking Committee hearing and subsequent floor vote represent the critical juncture that will clarify whether this nominee commands sufficient bipartisan support or faces substantial opposition. The 4-percentage-point gap between venues suggests modest disagreement about confirmation likelihood, with Polymarket pricing slightly more optimistic than Kalshi.

›Senate Banking Committee confirmation vote schedule and timing remain the single largest event driving resolution
›Cross-venue probability gap of 4 percentage points indicates venues have not fully converged, suggesting differing assessments of Senate voting behavior
›No bound contracts at top level implies market participants are still positioning ahead of major information events
›Confirmation probabilities typically reflect underlying Senate party composition and historical confirmation voting patterns
›Alternative nomination scenarios or candidate withdrawal would substantially shift baseline expectations

What moved the line

May 29Before 2027↓5pp19→14¢ · Kalshi
May 28Before 2027↓3pp22→19¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (15% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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