Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
186 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that a specific individual will successfully undergo Senate confirmation as the next Federal Reserve Chair, currently estimated at 62%. The probability sits at the midpoint of traditional political uncertainty, neither heavily favored nor unlikely. Market confidence hinges on two primary dynamics: Senate composition and voting patterns in confirmation votes, and any potential withdrawal or alternative candidate emerging. The Senate Banking Committee hearing and subsequent floor vote represent the critical juncture that will clarify whether this nominee commands sufficient bipartisan support or faces substantial opposition. The 4-percentage-point gap between venues suggests modest disagreement about confirmation likelihood, with Polymarket pricing slightly more optimistic than Kalshi.
- ›Senate Banking Committee confirmation vote schedule and timing remain the single largest event driving resolution
- ›Cross-venue probability gap of 4 percentage points indicates venues have not fully converged, suggesting differing assessments of Senate voting behavior
- ›No bound contracts at top level implies market participants are still positioning ahead of major information events
- ›Confirmation probabilities typically reflect underlying Senate party composition and historical confirmation voting patterns
- ›Alternative nomination scenarios or candidate withdrawal would substantially shift baseline expectations
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed expected to hold rates steady in July, CPI data in focus
The Fed July meeting is approaching, with markets pricing a 93% probability of no rate change. The 25bps hike contract is at 5¢, reflecting low odds. CPI data will be key to watch.
Fed Rate Decision: Market Overwhelmingly Expects No Change in July
The July FOMC meeting is priced at 94% probability of no rate change (94¢). However, the VIX surged 5.15% signaling rising uncertainty. Traders are watching CPI data and the 19% probability of a rate cut before 2027.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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