Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.6%
Leader sits at 97% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.4%
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 0.6%
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
May 11, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.7%?: Above 0.7%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T0.7
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T0.3
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T0.8
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T0.4
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T0.6
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T0.2
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.1%?: Above 1.1%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T1.1
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.9%?: Above 0.9%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T0.9
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.3%?: Above 1.3%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T1.3
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T1.0
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T1.2
Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5%
KXCHCPIYOY-26MAY10-T0.5
Analysis
This measures whether China's year-over-year inflation rate for April 2026 will exceed 0.6%. Markets currently price this at 97%, indicating traders believe inflation is very likely to clear this threshold. The contract structure reveals confidence in low but positive inflation: markets give 93% odds for 0.4% inflation and 46% odds for 0.9%, suggesting expectations cluster in the 0.3–0.8% range. Resolution depends on China's National Bureau of Statistics releasing April CPI data, typically in early May. Key drivers include domestic demand recovery, food price movements, energy costs, and policy stimulus measures. The steep probability gradient across thresholds (97% at 0.1% down to 46% at 0.9%) indicates genuine uncertainty about whether inflation will remain subdued or accelerate toward 1%, rather than consensus on the outcome itself.
- ›April 2026 CPI release date and actual reported figure from China's National Bureau of Statistics determines final outcome
- ›Recent inflation trajectory through February–March 2026 would inform expectations about April's print
- ›Commodity price movements (oil, metals) between late March and April 2026 affect input costs and inflation momentum
- ›Policy stimulus or monetary tightening announced in Q1–Q2 2026 influences consumer and producer prices in reported period
- ›Food prices (seasonal agricultural supply) and energy costs typically drive 60–70% of YoY CPI variance in China
Recently closed in recession
- Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%Above -0.2%last 94% · 1d
- Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.4%Above 1.3%last 86% · 1d
- Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?: ≤-0.4%last 47% · 4d
- Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.6%Above 4.6%last 60% · 4d
- UK GDP growth in Q1 2026last 57% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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