Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.6%
Leader sits at 89% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.6%
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
Above 4.7%
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$203
thin orderbook
Closes
May 13, 2026
4 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.9%?: Above 4.9%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T4.9
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.8%?: Above 4.8%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T4.8
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 5.6%?: Above 5.6%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T5.6
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 5.5%?: Above 5.5%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T5.5
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 5.3%?: Above 5.3%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T5.3
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 5.2%?: Above 5.2%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T5.2
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 5.1%?: Above 5.1%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T5.1
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.7%?: Above 4.7%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T4.7
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.6%?: Above 4.6%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T4.6
Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 5.0%?: Above 5.0%
KXUKUNRATE-26MAY13-T5.0
Analysis
The market currently prices an 89% probability that UK unemployment will exceed 4.6% when March 2026 data is released. This high probability reflects expectations that joblessness remains elevated relative to recent lows, driven by cooling economic activity and potential labor market softness. The primary factors supporting this level are recent UK economic slowdown indicators and labor market trends through early 2026. The Office for National Statistics will publish the official March 2026 unemployment figure, which will definitively resolve this contract. Traders are essentially betting that unemployment stays above the 4.6% threshold rather than declining further, with relatively little disagreement evident in the contract pricing structure.
- ›UK unemployment rate averaged 4.0-4.2% in late 2024, meaning 4.6% represents meaningful deterioration from recent levels
- ›ONS labor force surveys and monthly jobless claims data through February-March 2026 will form the basis of the official figure
- ›Economic growth forecasts for Q1 2026 and leading employment indicators (job postings, hiring intentions) through March will influence actual outcomes
- ›The specific contract resolves on the ONS release date for March 2026 labor statistics, eliminating gradual uncertainty once official data arrives
- ›Contrast with Spanish GDP contracts trading at 88-96% suggests different regional labor market dynamics; UK unemployment moves somewhat independently from eurozone growth patterns
Recently closed in recession
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in Aprillast 97% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?last 3% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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