Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.4%
Leader sits at 86% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1.1%
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Above 1.6%
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$331
thin orderbook
Closes
May 21, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.5%?: Above 2.5%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T2.5
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.7%?: Above 1.7%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T1.7
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 2.1%?: Above 2.1%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T2.1
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.9%?: Above 1.9%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T1.9
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.6%?: Above 1.6%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T1.6
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.5%?: Above 1.5%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T1.5
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.4%?: Above 1.4%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T1.4
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.3%?: Above 1.3%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T1.3
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T1.2
Will Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 1.1%?: Above 1.1%
KXJPCPIYOY-26MAY21-T1.1
What moved the line
- May 17Above 1.3%↓82pp91→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Above 1.4%↓60pp78→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Above 1.2%↓55pp89→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Above 1.5%↓52pp59→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Above 1.1%↓47pp90→43¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the Japan inflation rate MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%Above -0.2%last 94% · 2d
- Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?: ≤-0.4%last 47% · 4d
- Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.6%Above 4.6%last 60% · 5d
- UK GDP growth in Q1 2026last 57% · 9d
- Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.6%Above 0.5%last 97% · 13d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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