Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+5pp
9h ago
24h volume
$1K
6 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will over 4.5 maps be played in
Will over 4.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match?: Over 4.5 maps
KXCODTOTALMAPS-26MAY031500LATVAN-5
Will over 4.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match?: Over 4.5 maps
KXCODTOTALMAPS-26MAY031630G2MMH-5
Will over 4.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match?: Over 4.5 maps
KXCODTOTALMAPS-26MAY031800BOSPAR-5
Cluster 2
Will over 3.5 maps be played in
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match?: Over 3.5 maps
KXCODTOTALMAPS-26MAY031800BOSPAR-4
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match?: Over 3.5 maps
KXCODTOTALMAPS-26MAY031500LATVAN-4
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match?: Over 3.5 maps
KXCODTOTALMAPS-26MAY031630G2MMH-4
Analysis
This market asks whether the Los Angeles Thieves and Vancouver Surge will play more than 3.5 maps in their Call of Duty match, currently priced at 35% probability, suggesting bettors expect the series to finish in four maps or fewer. Best-of-5 series in competitive Call of Duty typically end 3-0 or 3-1, making 3.5+ maps (requiring at least one team to win 3-2) less common. The probability reflects team strength differentials, recent form, and historical series length in professional Call of Duty. The match outcome will be determined when the teams play, with the exact map count resolving the contract immediately upon completion.
- ›Head-to-head historical matchup data between Los Angeles Thieves and Vancouver Surge in 2026 season, including previous series lengths and competitive balance
- ›Current season win-loss records and map differential for both teams, indicating whether one team consistently dominates early in series
- ›Recent roster changes, player performance trends, or meta shifts in Call of Duty that could favor extended competition or dominant play
- ›Map pool composition and team specialization—teams with distinct map strengths vs. weaknesses are more likely to split maps and extend series
- ›Comparison to baseline: 54% probability for Boston Breach vs. Paris, and 30% probability for G2 Minnesota vs. Miami suggests tier differences affect expected series length
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑43pp10→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Over 3.5 maps↑33pp34→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑32pp2→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓31pp67→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑26pp2→28¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.