Will the corn close price be above $445.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−5pp
15h ago
24h volume
$44K
20 contracts
Closes
May 29, 2026
26 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 1
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 107 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $107
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T107
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 107.50 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $107.50
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T107.50
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 108 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $108
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T108
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $110
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T110
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 109.50 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $109.50
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T109.50
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110.50 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $110.50
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T110.50
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 108.99 USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $108.99
KXBRENTW-26MAY0817-T108.99
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 114 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $114
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T114
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110.99 USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $110.99
KXBRENTW-26MAY0817-T110.99
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 112 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $112
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T112
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 112.99 USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $112.99
KXBRENTW-26MAY0817-T112.99
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 116 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $116
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T116
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 115 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $115
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T115
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 112.50 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $112.50
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T112.50
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 113 USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $113
KXBRENTD-26MAY0417-T113
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 118.99 USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $118.99
KXBRENTW-26MAY0817-T118.99
Cluster 2
Will the copper close price be above 5.9
Cluster 3
will the gold close price be above 5013.99 usd/t.oz on may 29, 2026 at 5:00 pm edt
Cluster 4
will the silver close price be above 76.50 usd/t.oz on may 04, 2026 at 5:00 pm edt
Analysis
This market tracks whether corn futures will close above $445.99 on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT—a date that has already passed as of today (May 3, 2026). The 37% probability reflects the current consensus that corn did not close above that threshold on the specified date. Corn prices are primarily influenced by weather conditions affecting crop development, global supply dynamics, and macroeconomic factors like currency movements and demand from feed and ethanol sectors. Since the resolution date is in the past, this contract should resolve based on the actual closing price recorded on April 30, 2026. The market probability at this stage depends on data verification and any remaining confirmation of historical price records from that specific trading session.
- ›Actual corn futures closing price on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT is the deterministic factor; historical price data from CBOT or equivalent exchange records will provide final verification
- ›The 37% probability suggests traders assessed a two-thirds chance corn closed at or below $445.99 on that date, indicating bearish positioning in late April
- ›Contract resolution depends on accessing and confirming accurate historical closing prices from the relevant futures exchange for the exact time and date specified
- ›Any trading halts, data errors, or exchange reporting discrepancies on April 30 could affect final settlement determination
- ›The lag between the April 30 event date and current market date (May 3) means resolution should be imminent pending data confirmation
What moved the line
- May 3above $76.50↑24pp22→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 2above $112.99↑13pp24→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 2above $118.99↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 2above $108.99↑9pp39→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 2above $76.50↓8pp30→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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