France vs Luxembourg Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$585
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Germany vs Austria Winner
Germany vs Austria Winner?: Austria
KXCRICKETTESTMATCH-26MAY03AUSGER-AUS
Analysis
This 30% probability reflects market expectations for France to win a direct matchup against Luxembourg. The estimate sits between two major prediction venues, with Polymarket pricing France 6 percentage points higher than Kalshi, suggesting some disagreement about France's win probability. France enters as the heavy favorite given historical performance and rankings differences, but the specific match context—format, timing, and current team form—determines whether France sustains this edge or faces unexpected challenges. The primary driver of this probability is recent performance data and head-to-head historical records. Resolution depends on the match outcome, which will be determined on the scheduled fixture date.
- ›France's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Luxembourg's comparative standing and recent results
- ›Historical head-to-head outcomes between the two nations and goal differential patterns
- ›Team composition, injury status, and roster availability at time of match
- ›Match context including tournament stage, venue, and whether it affects final positioning or playoff seeding
- ›Polymarket-Kalshi 6 percentage point gap suggests different weighting of available information across venues
What moved the line
- May 3Austria↑7pp5→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 h ago.