Will more than 2050000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week
Leader sits at 94% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.35 million
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Above 2.45 million
Spread
60pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$240
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will more than 2
Will more than 2450000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?: Above 2.45 million
KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.45
Will more than 2500000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?: Above 2.5 million
KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.50
Will more than 2350000 people be **screened by the TSA** on average this week?: Above 2.35 million
KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.35
What moved the line
- Apr 29Above 2.45 million↓24pp61→37¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Above 2.45 million↓13pp74→61¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Above 2.45 million↓13pp37→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Above 2.45 million↑11pp32→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Above 2.45 million↑8pp24→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.