SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·13 source contracts·Kalshi 13·refreshed just now·Closes Sep 30, 2026 · 125d·9pp · 39h

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call

Leader sits at 87% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

87%

Hyperscaler

runner-up 74¢leader 87¢

Outcomes

13

winner-take-all

Runner-up

74¢

Tomahawk 6

Spread

13pp

contested

24h volume

$133

thin orderbook

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

125 days

Venue

Kalshi

13 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayHyperscaler: 69% on 2026-05-27Tomahawk 6: 59% on 2026-05-27Anthropic: 20% on 2026-05-27
Hyperscaler69¢Tomahawk 659¢Anthropic20¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 1d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call

13 contracts$133
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: OpenAI

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-OPENA

61¢$77K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Quantum

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-QUAN

6¢$19K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Optic

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-OPTI

20¢+6pp$17K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tomahawk 6

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-TOMA

74¢$14K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Department of War / DoW

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-DEPA

18¢$6K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Organic

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-ORGA

17¢$0K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Open Source

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-OPEN

10¢$0K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: NVLink

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-NVLI

12¢$0K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Meta

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-META

60¢+41pp$0K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Hyperscaler

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-HYPE

87¢$0K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Competition

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-COMP

39¢$0K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Anthropic

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-ANTH

69¢$0K

What will Broadcom Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Acquisition

KXEARNINGSMENTIONAVGO-26JUN03-ACQU

21¢$0K

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Broadcom's next earnings call will prominently feature discussion of hyperscaler customers and their artificial intelligence infrastructure demands. The 78% probability for hyperscaler focus suggests strong confidence that AI-driven data center spending will dominate management commentary, with runner-up outcomes (OpenAI at 52 cents, Competition at 34 cents) reflecting uncertainty about whether the discussion emphasizes specific AI model providers or competitive pressures instead. The outcome will be determined when Broadcom holds their next scheduled earnings call, likely in late summer 2026, where management typically discusses customer concentration, market trends, and revenue drivers. Market movements reflect that hyperscaler AI demand has been a persistent industry narrative, but the relatively close positioning of multiple outcomes indicates traders recognize material uncertainty about what messaging management will prioritize during the call.

  • Broadcom's recent quarterly results and forward guidance on data center and AI infrastructure spending levels
  • The percentage of total revenue or forward guidance attributed to hyperscaler customers versus other segments
  • Specific mentions of named AI companies or generic references to 'artificial intelligence customers' during the call
  • Competitive announcements or market share dynamics in networking and semiconductors between now and the earnings date
  • Management's tone and emphasis distribution across hyperscalers, OpenAI partnerships, quantum computing, and M&A strategy

What moved the line

  • May 28Meta41pp2263¢ · Kalshi
  • May 28Optic6pp1319¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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