TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 91% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Christian Menefee
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
Al Green
Spread
82pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 26, 2026
17 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that a particular candidate will win the Texas 18th Congressional District Democratic primary. At 86%, the market is pricing in a substantial but not overwhelming likelihood for the frontrunner, leaving meaningful space for alternative outcomes. The current level likely reflects available polling data, candidate funding, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district. Primary dynamics could shift if a trailing candidate gains ground through field operations, media coverage changes perceptions of electability, or voter preferences consolidate differently than current signals suggest. The primary election date itself will be the definitive catalyst, settling all uncertainty about the actual winner. Until then, any significant polling movement, fundraising announcements, or endorsement shifts would most directly influence this probability.
- ›Polling trends in TX-18 among registered Democratic voters in the weeks leading to the primary election
- ›Relative fundraising and cash-on-hand positions between the frontrunner and trailing candidates
- ›Endorsement patterns from local elected officials, party organizations, and prominent figures in the district
- ›Voter turnout composition in the district relative to historical Democratic primary participation rates
- ›Campaign event activity and media coverage intensity in the final weeks before the primary vote
What moved the line
- May 6Al Green↓14pp25→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Al Green↑8pp17→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Christian Menefee↑4pp83→87¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Christian Menefee↑4pp87→91¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Al Green↓3pp20→17¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (91% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
California Billionaire Wealth Tax Ballot Measure Surges +23¢ — Now 93¢ to Appear
The Polymarket contract for whether a one-time billionaire tax appears on the California 2026 ballot jumped an extraordinary +23¢ to 93¢ today, while the separate 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢. This suggests the measure has cleared a major legal or signature-gathering threshold.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.