Will Powell say Softening at his Apr 2026 press conference
Leader sits at 95% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Projection
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
81¢
Good Afternoon
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Jun 18, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kevin Warsh say
Will Kevin Warsh say Trump at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Trump
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-TRUM
Will Kevin Warsh say President at his Jun 2026 press conference?: President
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-PRES
Will Kevin Warsh say Stagflation at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Stagflation
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-STAG
Will Kevin Warsh say Powell at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Powell
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-POWE
Will Kevin Warsh say Bitcoin at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Bitcoin
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-BITC
Will Kevin Warsh say Oil at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Oil
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-OIL
Will Kevin Warsh say Projection at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Projection
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-PROJ
Will Kevin Warsh say Wife at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Wife
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-WIFE
Will Kevin Warsh say Volatility at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Volatility
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-VOLA
Will Kevin Warsh say National Debt at his Jun 2026 press conference?: National Debt
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-NATI
Will Kevin Warsh say Consumer Confidence at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Consumer Confidence
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-CONS
Will Kevin Warsh say QE / Quantitative Easing at his Jun 2026 press conference?: QE / Quantitative Easing
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-QE
Will Kevin Warsh say Iran at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Iran
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-IRAN
Will Kevin Warsh say Dissent at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Dissent
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-DISS
Will Kevin Warsh say Restrictive at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Restrictive
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-REST
Will Kevin Warsh say Tax at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Tax
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-TAX
Will Kevin Warsh say Good Afternoon at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Good Afternoon
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-GOOD
Will Kevin Warsh say Layoff at his Jun 2026 press conference?: Layoff
KXFEDMENTION-26JUN-LAYO
What moved the line
- Jun 15Iran↑24pp30→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Powell↓16pp63→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10National Debt↓13pp24→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Powell↓11pp47→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Layoff↑10pp35→45¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026last 59% · 0d
- How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meetinglast 65% · 0d
- Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meetinglast 7% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 17% · 0d
- How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jun 4, 2026last 65% · 13d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Hawks Soar: Zero Rate Cuts in 2026 Becomes Base Case
The probability of no Fed rate cuts in 2026 jumped 12¢ to 81¢ after stronger-than-expected payrolls and hawkish FOMC minutes, overturning earlier expectations of a cutting cycle. The 'Fed rate hike in 2026' market surged to 52¢, now a coin flip.
Tariff Shock Rattles Everything: VIX +10%, S&P -2.2%, Oil +7.6%
Tariff escalation triggered a sharp market downturn with VIX jumping 10% to 38.26, S&P 500 down 2.2%, and oil up 7.6%, while prediction markets price stagflation fears and a 37¢ recession probability.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.