Will Powell say Softening at his Apr 2026 press conference
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 8 contracts. Kalshi at 13%, Polymarket at 23% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
6 contracts
Polymarket
23%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$122K
8 contracts
Top contract
10¢
$31K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 13¢ · Polymarket 23¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (13¢, 6 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (23¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year” vs “Will Trump say "”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year
Cluster 2
Will Trump say "
Cluster 3
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
0xfbb9e9…b916
Cluster 4
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
0x0dc458…fe20
Cluster 5
Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Apr 27, 2026 to May 3, 2026
Cluster 6
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year
Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Kirill Kaprizov
KXCONNSMYTHE-26-KKAP
What moved the line
- May 1Karoline / Leavitt↓18pp52→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Who are you with / Where are you from↓15pp37→22¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Karoline / Leavitt↓14pp69→55¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Who are you with / Where are you from↓13pp56→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Above 50↓13pp29→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Imminent: Polymarket Surges to 97¢
The Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation by May 15 contract jumped 11¢ to 97¢ today, while Kalshi's version sits at 99¢. With April Fed hold at 100¢ and June also pricing 94¢ no-change, Warsh's arrival signals a potential hawkish shift ahead — a critical development for all rate-sensitive markets.
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Becomes Near-Certainty; Powell Exit Accelerates
The Kevin Warsh confirmation market exploded +55¢ in a single day to reach 84¢ for the May 15 deadline, while the overall 'confirmed as Fed Chair' market sits at 98¢ on Polymarket and 97¢ on Kalshi. Simultaneously, Jerome Powell's exit from the Fed Board itself (not just Chair) is pricing at 50-78¢ range, suggesting a clean break from the Powell era is imminent.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.