Egypt vs. IR Iran
Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Draw (Egypt vs. IR Iran)
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Egypt
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
49 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Egypt vs. IR Iran
Analysis
This probability indicates that bettors estimate a 41% chance Egypt will win in a matchup against Iran, with Iran favored at 39%. The close pricing reflects uncertainty about team form, recent competitive history, and tactical matchups. The probability could shift based on team announcements, injury reports, or pre-match performance data in the days leading up to the fixture. Key drivers include squad availability, historical head-to-head records, and any recent tournaments or qualifiers that signal current competitive standing. The scheduled match date and official confirmation of participating rosters will be the primary catalyst to finalize odds and resolve residual uncertainty in current pricing.
- ›Polymarket contracts show a narrow 2-percentage-point gap between Egypt (41%) and Iran (39%), indicating near-parity in perceived win probability
- ›Very low trading volumes on Egypt-Iran specific contracts ($2 on Kalshi) suggest limited market depth and potential for price moves on new information
- ›Related Iran contracts against New Zealand show Iran at 53% win probability, providing indirect context on perceived team strength
- ›No scheduled match date or official fixture confirmation is evident from the data provided, which may explain why uncertainty remains elevated
- ›The presence of multiple Iran matchups across platforms (vs. New Zealand, vs. Belgium) indicates these teams are active in current competitive cycles
What moved the line
- May 6IR Iran↓4pp39→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Egypt↓4pp41→37¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.