Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
35%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
0xfbb9e9…b916
Analysis
The 40% probability reflects market assessment of Elon Musk's likelihood of prevailing in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and others. The case involves contractual and governance disputes related to OpenAI's transition from nonprofit to for-profit structure. Markets show a meaningful split, with Polymarket pricing notably higher at 54% versus Kalshi at 38%, suggesting disagreement about the strength of Musk's claims or timeline uncertainty. Key drivers include the complexity of OpenAI's founding agreements, the specific legal theories Musk is pursuing, and how courts interpret contractual obligations around the company's structural changes. Resolution timing remains undefined—the 2027 deadline on Kalshi contracts indicates significant uncertainty about whether the case will reach verdict before then. The outcome hinges on discovery proceedings, settlement likelihood, and judicial interpretation of tech industry contract law.
- ›Polymarket-Kalshi spread of 16 percentage points suggests material disagreement on either case strength or resolution timeline expectations
- ›Kalshi contract explicitly priced to 2027 boundary, indicating market assigns meaningful probability to case extending beyond that date or settling unresolved
- ›No scheduled trial date or major upcoming hearing publicly announced as of April 2026, suggesting early litigation phase with high outcome uncertainty
- ›Case involves contractual interpretation of OpenAI's governance transition, a novel tech law area without extensive precedent
- ›Relative trading volume concentrated on Kalshi contract ($29.7k 24h vol) versus Polymarket ($12.7k), indicating more price discovery on near-term resolution assumptions
What moved the line
- Apr 26Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?↑6pp37→43¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?↓6pp45→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 1Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?↓4pp39→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?↑3pp35→38¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (35% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.