AI & Tech Prediction Market Odds

GPT-6 Timeline Compressed: June Release Surges 19¢

GPT-6 released by June 2026 surged 19¢ to 42¢ in a single day—the biggest AI model timeline move across all platforms. Anthropic leads the best AI model race at 67¢ while AI wins IMO gold medal jumped to 84¢.

Sam Altman OpenAI Equity & IPO Dynamics Rapidly Evolving

Altman's equity odds surged +11¢ to 37%, while OpenAI IPO by 2027 sits at 38% (with 63% 'no IPO'). The for-profit conversion is accelerating. Meanwhile, Anthropic leads the best AI model race at 65%, and Claude 5 is expected by June at 55%. The AI competitive landscape is being repriced in real-time.

Databricks IPO Signal: Biggest Single-Market Move Today (-43¢)

The 'No Databricks IPO by June 2026' outcome crashed 43 cents in a single day — from near-certainty to 91%. This is by far the largest move across all 3,521 markets and may indicate leaked S-1 filing information. Broader IPO market also shifting with Anduril (-22¢) and SHEIN (-12¢) moving.

Tim Cook Departure Odds Spike 10¢—Apple Leadership Transition Signal

The probability of Tim Cook leaving Apple before 2027 jumped 10¢ to 32%, the biggest single-day move among major CEO departure markets. John Ternus leads the successor market at 43%. This coincides with Apple's AI strategy struggles and could signal an imminent transition announcement.

Databricks IPO Suddenly in Play—43¢ Crash in 'No IPO' Probability

The probability that Databricks does NOT IPO by June 2026 dropped a staggering 43¢ to 91%, suggesting confidential filing or road show signals. This would be one of the largest tech IPOs of the cycle. Broader IPO market shows SpaceX at 94%, Cerebras at 91%, and OpenAI dropping to 38%.

Tim Cook Departure Risk Spikes 10¢ — Apple Succession Watch

The probability of Tim Cook leaving Apple before 2027 jumped 10 cents to 34% with $2,333 in volume, the largest single-day move among CEO departure markets. John Ternus leads the successor market at 44%. This could be driven by Apple's AI strategy challenges, declining China sales, or health/retirement speculation.

Databricks IPO Probability Explodes — Biggest Single Move Today

The 'No Databricks IPO by June 2026' contract crashed 43 cents in a single day, the largest move in all 3,532 markets. This suggests either a confidential S-1 filing, banker selection, or credible leak. Combined with Cerebras and SpaceX at 91% IPO probability, the tech IPO window may be reopening despite macro uncertainty.

Databricks IPO Appears Imminent — Tech IPO Window Opening

Databricks no-IPO odds crashed 43¢ in a single day, the largest move in the dataset. This, combined with SpaceX at 92¢ and Cerebras at 91¢ for pre-2027 IPO, suggests a major tech IPO window is opening. Meanwhile OpenAI IPO odds are fading (64¢ for no-IPO by 2026), creating a divergence between enterprise AI and consumer AI timelines.

Tim Cook Apple Exit Odds Surge 10¢ — Succession Watch

Tim Cook departure by 2027 jumped 10¢ to 28¢, the largest CEO-departure move in the data. John Ternus leads succession at 44¢. This coincides with Apple gaining ground in market cap race (10¢ for largest company end-June). A leadership transition at the world's most valuable company would reshape tech investing.

Tim Cook Exit Probability Jumps 10¢ — Apple CEO Succession in Play

The market for Tim Cook leaving Apple before 2027 surged +10¢ to 28¢, the largest CEO departure move. Combined with the surprise cellular MacBook signal (+5¢), this may indicate a strategic shift at Apple. John Ternus leads the succession market at 44¢. Apple also fell from largest company contention with NVIDIA dominating at 80¢.