AI & Tech Prediction Market Odds

Anthropic extends AI lead as Gemini 3.5 release approaches

The market for the best AI model end of May gives Anthropic a 92% probability, up 3¢ on 63k volume. Gemini 3.5 release by May 31 is priced at 82¢, up 6¢. The AI race is consolidating around a few players, with Google trying to catch up.

Gemini 3.5 Release Odds Crash 10 Points, Anthropic Soars

Google's Gemini 3.5 release by May 31 saw a 10-point collapse to 81¢, while Anthropic cemented its lead at 79¢ as the best AI model provider. Google's own 'best model' contract rose 8 points counterintuitively, suggesting a complex market.

Gemini 3.5 Release Date Jumps 70 Cents, Market Expects Imminent Launch

The probability of Google releasing Gemini 3.5 by June 30 surged 70 points to 74¢, making it the day's most dramatic mover. Traders are piling into this contract, likely reacting to a leak or industry report suggesting a major AI model release is imminent.

Gemini 3.5 Release Imminent – Probability Soars 83 Points

The market for 'Gemini 3.5 released by May 31' jumped from 4¢ to 87¢ after an internal Google documentation leak. This is the largest AI-related move of the day.

Anthropic Solidifies Lead in AI Model Race

The market for the 'best AI model in May 2026' shows a clear and massive consensus favoring Anthropic, with its probability jumping to 95¢ on Kalshi. This implies traders have a very high conviction in Anthropic's model, likely Claude, outperforming competitors like OpenAI or Google in the near future.

NVIDIA Dominance in AI: Odds to be Largest Company by June Jump 5¢

NVIDIA's market capitalization leadership probability rose 5¢ to 80¢ after a blowout earnings report. The company's AI chip sales continue to outpace competitors, reinforcing expectations that it will overtake Apple and Microsoft as the world's most valuable company by mid-2026.

Claude 5 Release Expectations Slip 16¢

The Polymarket contract for 'Claude 5 released by September 30, 2026' dropped 16¢ to 77¢, a notable shift in sentiment for Anthropic's next‑generation model. Despite Anthropic's current model holding a 76¢ lead in the 'best AI model end of May' market, traders are pushing back the timeline for the next major release.

Anthropic Leads AI Model Race as Markets Favor Claude for May

The 'Best AI in May 2026' market on Kalshi shows Anthropic's Claude at 97¢, completely dominating OpenAI's GPT at 1¢. The Gemini 3.5 release probability surged 9¢ to 27¢, suggesting new information about Google's roadmap. These markets are pricing in a clear hierarchy: Anthropic leads, Google is gaining, and OpenAI is surprisingly behind.

Anthropic Crushes AI Benchmarks: OpenAI Loses 50¢ on Math Model Market in One Day

A seismic shift in AI prediction markets today as Anthropic surged to 99¢ for best overall model and 81¢ for best math model, while OpenAI collapsed from leader to 19¢ on math. This is one of the largest single-day moves seen in the AI competitive landscape markets.

Anthropic Dethroning OpenAI: AI Model Crown Shifts Dramatically in April Markets

Anthropic's 'best AI model' contract surged +5¢ to 95¢ while OpenAI collapsed -4¢ to just 6¢ in a single day, suggesting a major model release or benchmark has flipped market consensus. This is one of the largest single-day AI sentiment shifts in prediction market history.