SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 18, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
17 source contracts·Polymarket 17·closed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 197d

What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in April 2026?

Bracket↑ $228

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 17 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

31%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

31%

17 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$58K

17 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

197 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 39% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 39% on 2026-06-18
Aggregate of 17 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 17 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will happen before GTA VI”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

What moved the line

  • Jun 15↓ 6014pp8268¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 15↓ 1,50011pp8170¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 11↓ 55,0005pp7772¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 15↑ 90,0005pp2833¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 16↑ 90,0005pp3328¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in ai tech

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Other questions in ai tech.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.