Volendam at Heracles Almelo
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
4 contracts
Closes
May 17, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Enschede at Alkmaar: Totals: Over” vs “GA Eagles at Sparta: Totals: Over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Enschede at Alkmaar: Totals: Over
Cluster 2
GA Eagles at Sparta: Totals: Over
What moved the line
- May 2Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored↑3pp35→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored↑3pp19→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. FK Spartak Moskva - More Markets: FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod (-1.5)last 47% · 0d
- Viborg FF vs. Brøndby IFlast 84% · 0d
- CD Real Tomayapo vs. Club The Strongest - More Markets: CD Real Tomayapo (-1.5)last 95% · 0d
- Pharco FC vs. El Gouna SClast 62% · 0d
- Molde FK vs. Vålerenga Fotballlast 91% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 h ago.