EWC 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 10 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
43%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$272
10 contracts
Closes
May 26, 2026
17 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
EWC 2026: Korea Qualifiers
EWC 2026: Korea Qualifiers: KT Rolster
0xd4286c…1e4e
EWC 2026: Korea Qualifiers: T1
0x001612…05bf
EWC 2026: Korea Qualifiers: BRION
0xcf36a7…5f80
EWC 2026: Korea Qualifiers: Hanwha Life Esports
0x120d3d…e690
EWC 2026: Korea Qualifiers: SOOPers
0x37df59…bfd0
EWC 2026: Korea Qualifiers: DRX
0xf7d372…a583
Cluster 2
EWC 2026: China Qualifiers
Analysis
This 37% probability reflects the aggregate market estimate that one or more specific teams will qualify for the 2026 EWC (likely an esports world championship) event across multiple regional qualifiers. The current price is driven by uncertainty across multiple regions—EMEA, Korea, and China each have qualifier tournaments where outcomes remain unresolved. Market depth varies significantly by region; Karmine Corp in EMEA trades at 75¢ suggesting strong qualification likelihood, while other contracts show lower conviction. The main factors determining whether this probability shifts are the upcoming qualifier tournament results in each region and the final team roster compositions being announced. Qualifier tournaments are typically scheduled months in advance, so specific competition dates would be the primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty. Until qualifier outcomes are determined, markets will remain relatively wide given the distributed risk across multiple regions and teams.
- ›Karmine Corp EMEA qualifier contract trades at 75¢, indicating strong market conviction for at least one specific team's qualification
- ›Multiple regional qualifiers (EMEA, Korea, China) create distributed uncertainty; no single region dominates the 37% aggregate probability
- ›Trading volume concentration in Galions (EMEA, $244 24h vol) versus low volume contracts suggests information asymmetry across regions
- ›The 37% level implies roughly 2-in-3 odds against qualification, indicating meaningful doubt about qualifier outcomes despite some high-conviction sub-contracts
- ›Qualifier tournament dates and bracket pairings represent the primary upcoming catalyst for probability movement
What moved the line
- May 7Korea Qualifiers: KT Rolster↓42pp61→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Korea Qualifiers: DRX↑32pp5→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Korea Qualifiers: T1↑26pp47→73¢ · Polymarket
- May 6China Qualifiers: JD Gaming↑20pp57→77¢ · Polymarket
- May 8China Qualifiers: JD Gaming↓8pp72→64¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in geopolitics
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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