Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 94% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
France
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
Turkey
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$167
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
208 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump visit
Will Donald Trump visit Hungary before Jan 1, 2027?: Hungary
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-HUN
Will Donald Trump visit Germany before Jan 1, 2027?: Germany
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-GER
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?: Saudi Arabia
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-SA
Will Donald Trump visit India before Jan 1, 2027?: India
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-IND
Will Donald Trump visit Japan before Jan 1, 2027?: Japan
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-JAP
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?: Mexico
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-MEX
Will Donald Trump visit Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?: Cuba
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-CUB
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey before Jan 1, 2027?: Turkey
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-TUR
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?: Taiwan
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-TAI
Will Donald Trump visit Russia before Jan 1, 2027?: Russia
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-RUS
Will Donald Trump visit Qatar before Jan 1, 2027?: Qatar
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-QAT
Will Donald Trump visit Poland before Jan 1, 2027?: Poland
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-POL
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan before Jan 1, 2027?: Pakistan
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-PAKI
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?: North Korea
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-NK
Will Donald Trump visit Italy before Jan 1, 2027?: Italy
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-ITA
Will Donald Trump visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?: Israel
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-ISR
Will Donald Trump visit France before Jan 1, 2027?: France
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-FRA
Will Donald Trump visit Denmark (incl. Greenland) before Jan 1, 2027?: Denmark
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-DEN
Will Donald Trump visit Canada before Jan 1, 2027?: Canada
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-CAN
Analysis
This probability represents the odds that Donald Trump will visit Taiwan before January 1, 2027. The high 93% price reflects market expectations that Trump will make this trip during his presidency, likely as part of a broader Asia-Pacific engagement strategy. Key factors driving this level include the political significance of Taiwan, ongoing US-China relations, and Trump's stated foreign policy priorities. Downward pressure would come from diplomatic complications or scheduling constraints. The main catalyst for resolution is Trump's public schedule and announcements regarding international travel, with any scheduled Asia trip significantly affecting these odds. The recent China-related contracts trading at 90% suggest traders view a Taiwan visit as likely if Trump travels to the region.
- ›Trump's stated commitment to Asia-Pacific engagement and Taiwan relations during his 2024-2025 statements
- ›Current geopolitical tensions between US and China, which could either accelerate or complicate a Taiwan visit
- ›No publicly announced Taiwan trip on Trump's official schedule as of early May 2026, suggesting this is a probabilistic expectation rather than confirmed
- ›Historical precedent: sitting US presidents rarely visit Taiwan directly due to diplomatic sensitivities, though this has shifted under Trump's prior administration
- ›The significant gap between Taiwan-specific odds (93%) and China visit odds (90%) indicates market confidence in a Taiwan stop if Trump travels to Asia
What moved the line
- Jun 6Germany↓5pp37→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Turkey↑5pp77→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Turkey↑5pp85→90¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Turkey↑4pp71→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Japan↓3pp41→38¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in china
- Singapore vs. China PR - Halftime Resultlast 45% · 1d
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Marketslast 95% · 1d
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Scorelast 14% · 1d
- Singapore vs. China PRlast 61% · 1d
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 52.0last 93% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Trump China Visit May 15 Surges +13¢ — Diplomatic Breakthrough Priced
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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