Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates the probability that Donald Trump will visit Taiwan before January 1, 2027. The current 97% probability on Turkey as the leading outcome suggests that among 19 countries tracked in this contract set, Turkey is most favored. The market prices reflect expectations about Trump's diplomatic travel patterns and geopolitical priorities over the next 6 months. Key drivers include Trump's stated positions on US-Taiwan relations, scheduled international engagements, and diplomatic developments. Resolution depends on whether Trump makes an official or semi-official trip to Taiwan before year-end. The tight clustering of prices across multiple countries (Russia at 10%, India at 15%, Pakistan at 8%) indicates relatively low aggregate probability mass assigned to any single destination, suggesting market uncertainty about Trump's specific travel itinerary during this period.

• ›Trump has not visited Taiwan as president or since leaving office; any such visit would be historically significant and diplomatically consequential given US-China relations
• ›The 97% price on Turkey versus lower probabilities on other destinations reflects market expectation of that outcome; the multi-outcome structure means probabilities need not sum to 100%
• ›Trading volume is highest on Russia ($288 24h) and Pakistan ($225 24h), indicating these are focal points for market participants evaluating Trump's potential travel
• ›The 6-month timeframe (July-December 2026) constrains the window; any announced diplomatic schedule or campaign activities would clarify travel intentions
• ›A Taiwan visit would require unprecedented diplomatic signaling or policy shift given historical US-China sensitivities and would likely trigger immediate market repricing across related geopolitical contracts

What moved the line

• Jul 18Israel↑11pp12→23¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 16Poland↓8pp20→12¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 19Poland↑7pp12→19¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 16Israel↓7pp19→12¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21Japan↓5pp26→21¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in china

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• Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027last 14% · 35d
• Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026last 6% · 35d
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026last 6% · 35d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds