How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Leader sits at 80% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.5%
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
4.6%
Spread
28pp
contested
24h volume
$135
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?: 4.8%
0x06666e…b1a5
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?: 4.5%
0x443e8c…57e9
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?: 6.0%
0xb969b9…4e18
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?: 5.5%
0x1f10b1…d558
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?: 5.0%
0x0e159c…53e0
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?: 4.6%
0x9d9899…e6b4
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?: 5.7%
0x48480f…74e7
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?: 5.2%
0x29ab85…fed1
Analysis
The 80% probability reflects market expectation that the 10-year Treasury yield will reach 4.8% at some point before the end of 2026. Treasury yields respond primarily to Federal Reserve policy signals and inflation data; if the Fed maintains restrictive rates longer than expected or inflation remains elevated, yields would likely rise toward this threshold. Conversely, if economic growth slows significantly or inflation cools, downward pressure could prevent reaching 4.8%. The main catalyst is the Fed's rate-setting decisions at scheduled meetings through December, alongside monthly Consumer Price Index and employment reports that influence expectations about rate cuts. Current market pricing suggests yields have room to move higher from recent levels but face some resistance.
- ›The 10-year yield as of early May 2026 appears to be trading in the 4.34-4.42% range based on near-term Kalshi contracts, leaving roughly 0.4-0.5% of potential upside to reach 4.8%
- ›Federal Reserve meeting decisions and forward guidance through December 2026 will be the primary driver of long-term rate expectations and thus 10-year yields
- ›Inflation data (CPI releases every month) and employment reports will determine whether markets expect the Fed to maintain higher rates longer or begin cutting earlier
- ›The 80% probability is substantially higher than the runner-up at 44%, indicating dominant market consensus rather than genuine disagreement about the outcome
- ›The relatively thin trading volumes in related contracts ($65-169 in 24-hour volume) suggest limited liquidity and potential for sharp repricing if major economic data surprises the market
What moved the line
- May 36.0%↓10pp16→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 74.6%↑7pp49→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 84.6%↑7pp56→63¢ · Polymarket
- May 24.8%↓5pp25→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 64.5%↓3pp81→78¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.