Fed Rate Decisions Prediction Market Odds

Fed Stay-or-Cut: Market Hawks Win as Rate Cut Hopes Fade

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in July (79¢ for no hike) with the market pricing zero rate cuts for all of 2026 at 76¢. Core CPI expectations remain sticky at 77% probability of rising more than 0.1% in June, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative. Traders should watch the KXFEDDECISION series for July and September meetings.

Fed Set to Hold Steady as Rate Cut Hopes Fade for 2026

The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to hold rates at the July 2026 meeting (84¢ probability), and the market sees zero rate cuts through December as the base case at 75¢. This hawkish posture supports the dollar and bond yields while challenging risk assets.

Fed Rate Markets Price 88% Probability of Hold, Zero Cuts in 2026

Fed hold probability at 88% for July meeting with 76% chance of zero cuts in 2026. Inflation expectations remain elevated above 3.7%, consistent with hawkish stance.

Fed Rate Path Solidifies: Market Sees 89% Chance of July Hold as Inflation Bites

The market overwhelmingly expects the Fed to hold rates steady at the July meeting, with a 9% chance of a hike. Persistent inflation data is supporting this hawkish view, making KXFEDDECISION contracts a key area of interest.

Fed Paused: Markets Price 90% Chance of July Hold, No Cuts in 2026

Prediction markets show a 90% probability (90¢) of a 0bps hike at the Fed's July 2026 meeting. Traders see no cuts in 2026, forcing a reassessment of rate-sensitive positions.

Fed Holds Steady as Markets Price Status Quo Into July Meeting

Traders are overwhelmingly pricing a 79¢ probability of a 0bps hike at the July 2026 FOMC meeting. The 25bps hike scenario sits at just 19¢, while rate cuts remain off the table with a 77¢ chance of zero cuts by year-end. This reflects a market that trusts the Fed's 'higher for longer' narrative despite slowing growth indicators.

Fed Poised to Hold in July – Rate Cut Hopes Fade

The largest prediction market by volume (KXFEDDECISION) prices a 80% chance of no rate change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting. Markets have shifted from cut expectations to a steady hand, with 0 cuts by year-end at 77¢. Traders should watch upcoming CPI and payrolls data for potential repricing.

Fed Solidifies No-Cut Narrative: Markets Price 79% Chance of Zero Rate Cuts in 2026

The Fed decision market for July 2026 and the rate cut count market for 2025-12 both show strong consensus for a prolonged hold. With $157k+ volume on the zero-cut contract, traders are betting the economy stays too resilient for the Fed to ease.

Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Change Expected in July

The KXFEDDECISION market shows an 84% probability of no rate hike at the July 2026 meeting, with over 100k volume. Traders are pricing in a pause as inflation data remains sticky.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Deepen as CPI Data Looms

Markets are pricing in a high 82% probability of no rate hike in July, while the debate over the total number of 2026 cuts intensifies. The CPI report for June is the next major catalyst, with a 65% probability of inflation exceeding 3.7%.