Fed Rate Decisions Prediction Market Odds

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Edge Lower – 0-Cut Contract Drops 3¢

The market for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 fell from 72¢ to 69¢, while the June 'no change' contract remains at 98¢. A small but growing possibility of cuts is being priced in for later in the year.

Fed Rate Path Firms as 'No Change' June Contract Hits 98¢, Rate Cut Expectations Fade

The 'Fed Decision in June: No change' contract on Polymarket rose 1¢ to 98¢ on 435k volume, the highest conviction level of any Fed market. Meanwhile, the 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026: 0' contract fell 5¢ to 67¢, signaling some erosion in the hawkish consensus. Kalshi's 0bps hike contract is at 96¢ with tight spreads, confirming the market sees no rate action at the June meeting.

Fed Chair Transition Nears Certainty, Markets Bet Against Rate Cuts

Markets fully price Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair (100¢) and just 2% chance of a June rate cut. With CPI at 4.0% and recession odds at 17%, the 'no cut' consensus is the dominant macro trade. The KXFEDDECISION series offers liquid exposure.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise as Powell Exit Looms, Warsh Confirmation at 99¢

Rate cut odds are creeping up as Powell's exit probability and Warsh confirmation approach 100%, signaling a potential dovish pivot.

Fed Chair Confirmed, Rate Path Steady for Now

The market has decisively priced in a 'no change' at the June FOMC meeting, while also assigning a near-100% probability to Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair. This signals a period of policy stability on the rate front but a significant leadership transition.

Fed Stands Pat: Market Prices Out Near-Term Rate Cuts for June

The prediction market is overwhelmingly pricing in no change to interest rates at the Fed's June meeting, with the 'No change' contract trading at a near-certain 96 cents. This hawkish sentiment is reinforced by a slight increase in bets that the Fed will deliver zero cuts for the entirety of 2026.

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Imminent: Polymarket Surges to 97¢

The Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation by May 15 contract jumped 11¢ to 97¢ today, while Kalshi's version sits at 99¢. With April Fed hold at 100¢ and June also pricing 94¢ no-change, Warsh's arrival signals a potential hawkish shift ahead — a critical development for all rate-sensitive markets.

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Confirmation Becomes Near-Certainty; Powell Exit Accelerates

The Kevin Warsh confirmation market exploded +55¢ in a single day to reach 84¢ for the May 15 deadline, while the overall 'confirmed as Fed Chair' market sits at 98¢ on Polymarket and 97¢ on Kalshi. Simultaneously, Jerome Powell's exit from the Fed Board itself (not just Chair) is pricing at 50-78¢ range, suggesting a clean break from the Powell era is imminent.

Trump Drops Powell Investigation — Fed Independence Risk Evaporates

Markets exploded today as traders priced in near-certainty that Trump is dropping his investigation of Jerome Powell. The April 30 contract surged +76¢ to 93¢ and the June 30 version hit 95¢ (+26¢). Meanwhile Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair by May 15 jumped +47¢ to 77¢, and Powell's exit from the Fed Board itself is now at 57¢ (+30¢).

Fed Chair Race: Kevin Warsh Locked In at 94¢ — Rate Cut Odds Shifting on Oil Shock

Kevin Warsh is the near-certain next Fed Chair at 94¢ on Polymarket with $781k volume. More importantly, the zero rate cuts in 2026 probability jumped +4¢ to 41¢ today, reflecting the inflationary impact of the oil spike. The April meeting 'no change' market remains at 99¢ but June and beyond are now more uncertain.