Fed Rate Decisions Prediction Market Odds

Fed Rate Hold is the Overwhelming Consensus for September 2026

The prediction market gives a 72% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at its September 2026 meeting, while a rate cut is priced at just 1¢. This reflects a market that has fully priced out near-term rate cuts, believing the economy remains resilient. Any deviation in upcoming inflation or jobs data will create a significant trading opportunity in these high-volume contracts.

Fed Rate Markets See 73% Chance of No Hike in September

Fed rate decision markets show a 73% probability of no hike in September, with the 25bp hike contract at 26%. Unemployment and CPI contracts indicate a still-warm economy.

Fed hold expected in September 2026; zero cuts for year priced at 85¢

Fed rate path markets show a 72% probability of no rate change in September 2026 and an 85% chance of zero cuts for the entire year. Inflation expectations remain elevated, with CPI year-over-year above 3.3% priced at 64¢.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump as September Meeting Approaches

The probability of a 25bp rate hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting rose 5¢ to 27¢, with over 590k volume on the 'Yes' contract. The 'no change' contract sits at 70¢ with 457k volume. Traders are pricing in a hawkish tilt after stronger-than-expected inflation data.

Fed Rate Decision: A Pivot Point for Markets

The highest-volume market overall is the Fed's September 2026 rate decision. The 63¢ price for a 'no hike' suggests a strong consensus for a pause, but the 36¢ for a 25bps hike indicates significant tail risk.

Fed September Meeting in Focus; 0 bps Hike at 49¢ on 351k Volume

September 2026 FOMC meeting markets show near 50/50 odds of a hike vs hold, with total volume over 400,000. The cumulative rate cut count market (KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC) prices zero cuts at 86¢.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge: September Hike vs. Hold is a Toss-Up

Traders are assigning a 55% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, while a hold is at 42%. This marks a significant shift in expectations, with the market now expecting the Fed to continue its tightening cycle rather than pause.

Fed rate hike odds firm after strong payrolls

The probability of a 25bps hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting rose 4¢ to 56¢, driven by an above‑consensus U‑3 unemployment report. The market now sees only a 42% chance of a hold, and the next CPI print will be the key swing factor.

Fed Rate Path Remains Hawkish; Hike Odds Near 50%

The market is pricing a 52% chance of a 25bp hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, while a cut is virtually off the table at 2¢. Bond yields are steady, but the debate over the terminal rate continues to dominate macro trading.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise to 50% for September

Fed rate cut expectations are shifting: markets now price a 50% chance of a hike in September, while the probability of any cut before year-end remains low. CPI data and emergency meeting probabilities are key signals.