How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Leader sits at 56% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
3.9%
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
3.8%
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$18
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: 3.5%
0x01cd5a…7d19
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: 3.8%
0x87de09…1eab
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: 3.6%
0x7e0cee…cb3a
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: 2.0%
0x24f7bf…6526
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: 3.9%
0x691fa7…211e
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: 3.7%
0x6a2359…a45f
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: 1.0%
0x0828a0…6c15
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?: 3.0%
0x31c7f0…7f02
Analysis
This question asks whether 10-year Treasury yields will fall to 3.8% or lower at any point before the end of 2026. Currently priced at 26%, the prediction reflects skepticism that yields will decline significantly from recent levels around 4.3-4.4%. Treasury yields are primarily driven by inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and economic growth forecasts. A sharp market downturn, unexpected deflation, or aggressive Fed rate cuts would push yields lower. The main uncertainty revolves around how the Fed navigates inflation throughout 2026—specifically, whether economic data will support multiple rate cuts before year-end. PCE inflation reports, employment data, and Fed communications will be the principal drivers of yield movement.
- ›Current 10-year yields near 4.3-4.4% require a decline of 50+ basis points to reach 3.8%, a substantial move in a single year
- ›Fed funds futures and forward guidance will determine market expectations for rate cuts; significant easing would be necessary to drive long-term yields lower
- ›Core inflation trends through 2026 will be the primary constraint on yield compression; persistent inflation would keep yields elevated
- ›Economic recession or major financial stress would create flight-to-safety demand for Treasuries, the likeliest scenario enabling sub-3.8% yields
- ›Trading volume on related contracts shows most near-term speculation focuses on narrow 4.3-4.4% ranges rather than extreme moves downward
What moved the line
- May 33.7%↑14pp27→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 83.5%↑9pp19→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 83.9%↓9pp64→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 73.9%↑8pp56→64¢ · Polymarket
- May 23.6%↑4pp30→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.