Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
48%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$962
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
0xff68b3…58df
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Iran formally agrees to cease uranium enrichment activities by the end of 2026. At 45%, the market reflects significant uncertainty about whether diplomatic negotiations will succeed or whether Iran will maintain its enrichment program. The current assessment is influenced by the state of nuclear talks and Iran's historical compliance patterns. Upward pressure would come from renewed multilateral negotiations or international agreements; downward pressure would result from escalating sanctions or Iran's continued enrichment expansion. The key near-term catalyst is whether the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, which would signal either successful negotiation or military/intelligence intervention, fundamentally shifting expectations for a full agreement by year-end.
- ›Current Iranian uranium enrichment capacity and recent expansion rates compared to pre-agreement levels
- ›Status and momentum of ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Iran and international powers as of Q2 2026
- ›Track record of Iranian compliance with previous nuclear agreements and stated commitments over the past 5 years
- ›Polymarket contracts pricing US uranium acquisition by May 31 at only 10¢, suggesting low confidence in near-term breakthroughs
- ›Political changes in Iran or shifts in US foreign policy that could either enable or obstruct agreement negotiations
What moved the line
- May 7Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?↑7pp43→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?↑5pp40→45¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?↑3pp50→53¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Spike as Diplomacy Intensifies
Contracts for a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by May 31 jumped 5¢ to 34¢ on Polymarket, while the June 30 deadline climbed to 54¢. The surge comes amid reports of back‑channel negotiations and a diplomatic meeting scheduled for mid‑May. Traders should watch the May 15 diplomatic meeting market, which collapsed 12¢ to 12¢, signaling a possible disconnect between expectations and reality.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Ramps Up
The probability of a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 has crossed 50¢ for the first time, signaling that traders see real progress in negotiations. Short-dated contracts expiring May 15 and May 31 have also spiked, indicating high conviction that a framework agreement could emerge within weeks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.