Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
30%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$17K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
0x9d3f02…75c7
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Iran will commit to ending uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026. The 26% probability reflects skepticism about near-term diplomatic resolution, given that negotiations have historically stalled on this issue. The low probability is primarily driven by Iran's past reluctance to abandon enrichment capabilities and the absence of major recent diplomatic breakthroughs. Upward pressure would come from direct negotiations resulting in concrete agreements, while downward pressure would follow from continued enrichment acceleration or public statements rejecting limitations. The key catalyst is whether intensive negotiations between Iran and international parties materialize and produce verifiable commitments before the June 30 deadline. Related markets suggest traders assess the likelihood of regime change, permanent peace deals, and uranium seizure as interconnected outcomes that would influence this core enrichment question.
- ›Iran's current uranium enrichment capacity and recent centrifuge expansion rates versus historical negotiation outcomes
- ›Active diplomatic channels and scheduled negotiations between Iran and international parties through June 30
- ›Verification mechanisms and inspection access that would be required to confirm enrichment cessation
- ›Geopolitical events or regime stability changes that could shift Iranian leadership's negotiating position
- ›Previous JCPOA compliance patterns and Iran's track record on implementing similar commitments
What moved the line
- May 6Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?↑8pp25→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?↑5pp33→38¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
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Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (30% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Spike as Diplomacy Intensifies
Contracts for a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by May 31 jumped 5¢ to 34¢ on Polymarket, while the June 30 deadline climbed to 54¢. The surge comes amid reports of back‑channel negotiations and a diplomatic meeting scheduled for mid‑May. Traders should watch the May 15 diplomatic meeting market, which collapsed 12¢ to 12¢, signaling a possible disconnect between expectations and reality.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Ramps Up
The probability of a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 has crossed 50¢ for the first time, signaling that traders see real progress in negotiations. Short-dated contracts expiring May 15 and May 31 have also spiked, indicating high conviction that a framework agreement could emerge within weeks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.