Iran coup attempt by June 30

30-day trend

Analysis

This 13% probability estimates the likelihood of a significant change in Iranian regime control or leadership by June 30, 2026—roughly two months away. The assessment reflects limited near-term expectations for successful coup activity, though geopolitical tensions and internal instability represent potential upside drivers. Downside pressure comes from the Iranian security apparatus's demonstrated capacity to suppress internal opposition and the absence of coordinated military or civilian movements with credible momentum. The resolution hinges on whether organized opposition forces—whether external actors like exiled groups or internal factions—can execute a sustained challenge to state authority. Key upcoming indicators include reports of military defections, large-scale street protests, or statements from significant power brokers suggesting regime fragility. The relatively short timeframe and modest probability suggest markets view a June 30 transition as possible but unlikely absent a major triggering event.

• ›Iranian security forces have historically contained domestic unrest; sustained organizational capacity among opposition groups would signal meaningful change risk
• ›Specific catalysts like coordinated military defection, regional conflict escalation, or major economic shock would be required to materially shift probabilities in such a short window
• ›Related markets price Reza Pahlavi entry at 4% and permanent US-Iran peace deals at 37%, suggesting investors see regime change as lower probability than diplomatic shifts
• ›Geographic control markers like Kharg Island occupation (priced at 12%) reflect uncertainty about territorial and institutional stability rather than imminent regime collapse
• ›The June 30 endpoint is arbitrary and creates inherent ambiguity; events that develop gradually post-deadline would not trigger resolution despite material regime stress

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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