Iran coup attempt by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
8%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iran coup attempt by June 30
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
0x17c9de…e64b
Analysis
This 13% probability estimates the likelihood of a significant change in Iranian regime control or leadership by June 30, 2026—roughly two months away. The assessment reflects limited near-term expectations for successful coup activity, though geopolitical tensions and internal instability represent potential upside drivers. Downside pressure comes from the Iranian security apparatus's demonstrated capacity to suppress internal opposition and the absence of coordinated military or civilian movements with credible momentum. The resolution hinges on whether organized opposition forces—whether external actors like exiled groups or internal factions—can execute a sustained challenge to state authority. Key upcoming indicators include reports of military defections, large-scale street protests, or statements from significant power brokers suggesting regime fragility. The relatively short timeframe and modest probability suggest markets view a June 30 transition as possible but unlikely absent a major triggering event.
- ›Iranian security forces have historically contained domestic unrest; sustained organizational capacity among opposition groups would signal meaningful change risk
- ›Specific catalysts like coordinated military defection, regional conflict escalation, or major economic shock would be required to materially shift probabilities in such a short window
- ›Related markets price Reza Pahlavi entry at 4% and permanent US-Iran peace deals at 37%, suggesting investors see regime change as lower probability than diplomatic shifts
- ›Geographic control markers like Kharg Island occupation (priced at 12%) reflect uncertainty about territorial and institutional stability rather than imminent regime collapse
- ›The June 30 endpoint is arbitrary and creates inherent ambiguity; events that develop gradually post-deadline would not trigger resolution despite material regime stress
What moved the line
- May 3Iran coup attempt by June 30?↓4pp16→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Iran coup attempt by June 30?↓3pp12→9¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Spike as Diplomacy Intensifies
Contracts for a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by May 31 jumped 5¢ to 34¢ on Polymarket, while the June 30 deadline climbed to 54¢. The surge comes amid reports of back‑channel negotiations and a diplomatic meeting scheduled for mid‑May. Traders should watch the May 15 diplomatic meeting market, which collapsed 12¢ to 12¢, signaling a possible disconnect between expectations and reality.
Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Ramps Up
The probability of a U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 has crossed 50¢ for the first time, signaling that traders see real progress in negotiations. Short-dated contracts expiring May 15 and May 31 have also spiked, indicating high conviction that a framework agreement could emerge within weeks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.